UHURU KENYATTA will easily beat RAILA ODINGA in ROUND ONE...

A. REGISTERED VOTERS (Rounded off)

Central: 2.2m
Rift Valley: 3.3m
Nairobi: 1.7m
Eastern: 2.1m
Western: 1.4m
Coast: 1.2m
Nyanza: 1.9m
North Eastern: 0.35 m


B.EXPECTED TURNOUT (Rounded off)

Central: 88%
Rift Valley: 88%
Nairobi: 80%
Eastern: 80%
Western: 70%
Coast: 70%
Nyanza: 90%
North Eastern: 70%


C. JUBILEE VOTE (% of voter turnout, NOT registered voters)

Central: 90%
Rift Valley: 72%
Nairobi: 54%
Eastern: 60%
Western: 14%
Coast: 20%
Nyanza: 22%
North Eastern: 50%

D. ACTUAL JUBILEE VOTES
(To get this you multiply A, B and C, the latter two in decimal form)

Eg the JUBILEE vote in Central will be: 2.2m x 0.88 x 0.90 = 1.75 million votes.

For Cord in Central the votes will be: 2.2m x 0.88 x 0.08 = 150,000 votes.

Using this formula, JUBILEE will get the following votes:

Central: 1.7m
Rift Valley: 2m
Nairobi: 730,000
Eastern: 1m
Western: 140,000
Coast: 170,000
Nyanza: 375,000
North Eastern: 140,000

TOTAL JUBILEE VOTES: 6.5 m.

Notes:

* About 1.8 m registered voters will not cast their ballots meaning 50%+1 will be 6.2m (14.4m-1.8m).

*Cord could probably have turned the tables on JUBILEE were it not on Musalia who will take away the Western votes.